Have a look to the latest market views by Duncan Gwyther, Chief Investment Officer of Quilter.
>> After several volatile months risk assets rallied strongly in late October on the expectation that the latest moves by European policymakers would produce the long-awaited ‘comprehensive solution’ and stabilise the debt crisis.
Pacific Basin ex Japan (+8.9%) was the strongest equity market for euro investors while the Eurofirst 300 was up 7.86%, ending the month 73 points higher at 966. After dropping briefly at the start of the month, the 10 year bund yield rose 16 basis points to 2.06%. The Euro appreciated 4% against the US$ to 1.39 and Brent Crude rose 4% to $110.5 as structural demand from economies like China outweighed weakening global growth. However, the relief rally immediately after the European Summit rapidly stalled when the German Constitutional Court suspended the use of a special parliamentary committee to take decisions on the European Financial Stability Fund, Italian bond yields started climbing again and Prime Minister Papandreou announced a referendum – a move which was withdrawn when the opposition agreed to be bound into implementing the Greek rescue package.
As well as a second rescue package, the Summit announced a commercial bank recapitalisation programme and measures to secure the Eurozone’s future via enhancements to the EFSF with greater fiscal coordination. As anticipated, the Greek element included a proposal for a ‘voluntary bond exchange with a nominal discount of 50%’ as well as a new public loan package of up to EE100bn until 2014. The latter will provide the necessary funds to recapitalise Greek banks and will be funded by the EFSF and IMF. Although there were no new austerity measures, the additional funding is conditional on the EU Commission having more control over implementation. There are already doubts as to whether this will be sufficient to get Greece on a sustainable recovery path.
After two ineffectual bank stress tests, the recapitalisation programme was long overdue. Around seventy cross-border banks will have to meet a Core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9% within six months. This means they will collectively have to increase their capital by EE107bn but in practice are likely to meet this target by a combination of asset sales, retained earnings, suspending dividends/bonus payments and converting debt into equity rather than by raising fresh capital. If they are unable to do this, they would first resort to national governments and then in extremis to the EFSF. While this is a welcome move, policymakers seem to have a somewhat misplaced notion that recapitalisation can be achieved without restricting credit flows to the real economy.
The enhancements to the EFSF are probably the most critical in terms of the Eurozone’s future. Although its borrowing powers were increased to EE440bn in July and it was allowed to buy sovereign bonds in the secondary market to help ‘support’ prices, many felt this would not provide enough firepower to prevent contagion spreading to Italy and Spain. The latest proposal is to leverage the existing borrowing powers through ‘first loss’ insurance and a special purpose vehicle. The details are yet to be announced but it is thought that by insuring say the first 20 cents of a new sovereign debt issue the EFSF could ‘guarantee’ a nominal value of around EE1trillion. The advantages of this approach are that it is within existing EFSF powers and does not require ratification by member parliaments, no extra cash has to be produced up front, it is neutral in terms of debt/GDP ratios, it could be implemented relatively quickly and – key for Germany – the ECB remains an independent entity. The main disadvantage is that the scheme hinges on the credit ratings of Germany and France.
The bottom line – as with other measures being taken across industrialised economies – is that the deleveraging process will take time and result in below trend growth especially in countries where currency devaluation and inflation cannot share the burden. The growth outlook has deteriorated further in recent weeks with purchasing manager indices signalling contraction in both developed and emerging economies. Although news from the US has been slightly more optimistic in terms of improving business conditions and credit availability for smaller companies, it has not altered our estimate that global GDP will fall to 2.8% in 2012 with near recessionary conditions in the industrialised world. The UK is facing the most anaemic recovery since the war and on a par with anything seen in Japan over the past 20 years. While Q3 growth of 0.5% was marginally higher than expected thanks to net exports, Q4 is forecast to be close to zero as real household incomes are squeezed, investment stalls and external demand weakens. With tax receipts undershooting, there is limited scope for pro-growth measures in the Autumn Statement. This means the Coalition government will stick with its deficit reduction plan and rely on further quantitative easing to boost the economy by suppressing long-term rates which will also help reduce the interest rate burden.
The Q3 reporting season has seen a wide range of companies report strong results and many outlook statements - especially those from companies able to tap into global growth opportunities - are still relatively optimistic. However, 2012 profit forecasts continue to ease back in anticipation of slower growth. Real GDP of 1.2% in the industrialised world and consumer price inflation of 3% should support sales growth of between 4% and 5%. There is less certainty on margins which have been running at record levels. If companies are as quick to cut costs as they were in 2009, margins would be protected and profitability could surprise on the upside. Markets are unlikely to establish a new trend until profit expectations have settled but companies have plenty of scope to maintain/increase dividend payments. With equities yielding 4.5% – well in excess of 10 year gilts - long-term investors stand a good chance of being rewarded for their patience.
No comments:
Post a Comment